Nebula Public Library

With the “democratisation of space”, and the proliferation of large non-geostationary orbit (NGO) constellations, the pace at which human-made objects are being deployed in orbit demands urgent action in defining and supporting a global Space Traffic Management (STM) plan. Promptly identifying, tracking, and cataloguing of resident space objects (RSOs), in particular after orbit insertion or break-up and fragmentation events, as the recent Russian anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) test put in evidence, is of critical importance to enable a safe and sustainable use of space.

For long-term studies, numerical simulations are at the center of predicting the space debris environment of the upcoming decades. In the scope of the study, the authors present the architecture and proof-of-concept results for a numerical simulation capable of modeling the long-term debris evolution over decades with a deterministic conjunction tracking model in contrast to typically employed Monte Carlo methods. For the simulation, an efficient propagator in modern C++ accounting for Earth’s gravitational anomalies, solar radiation pressure, and atmospheric drag was developed.

Space debris is mainly constituted by small items which cannot be de-orbited by using specific satellites launched from the Earth due to costs and difficulty in miniaturizing robotic arms or other rigid actuation systems. In a long-period vision, small cleaning satellites, with a size comparable with the debris to remove, can be manufactured in Space. Traditional robotic systems would be extremely expensive and some also would have problems in grabbing objects with undefined shape.

The study demonstrates that in an emergency situation, with only a very short warning time, the launch of a fast asteroid kinetic deflection mission is feasible (targeting launch-readiness in six months!), given that certain identified pre-requisites have been prepared well in advance. The capabilities and requirements of 'hijacking' and modifying a commercial spacecraft platform in order to perform asteroid kinetic deflection in the shortest possible time were consequently assessed.