Development of a physics-based models for operational prediction of the propagation of CMEs and solar energetic particles to the Earth.

 

The background solar wind and solar eruptions, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and High-speed Solar wind Streams (HSSs), propagate into interplanetary space are drivers for space weather phenomena. Resulting impacts include geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), ionospheric disturbances interfering with GNSS systems, spacecraft charging, single event effects on spacecraft and launchers resulting from accelerated Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) and aurora, especially at high latitudes. Many physics-based models have been developed for simulating parts of the Sun-to-Earth space weather system, consisting of plasma, fields and energetic charged particles. Depending on the problem, these use a variety of modelling techniques (magneto hydrodynamics, particle-in-cell, etc.). At this time such models exist in the form of scientific codes but require additional technical development before a transition to operations.

 

This activity shall develop and enhance existing physics-based models of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) structure, propagation and evolution creating a full global 3D code. Outputs shall include the prediction of arrival times of CMEs and HSSs, event-time profiles of the plasma density along with the magnetic field strength and direction in the heliosphere from a few solar radii up to and beyond 1 AU. The inclusion of an SEP propagation model driven by the modelled CME-driven shock shall be explored. Efforts to unify such codes have been previously undertaken as part of the ESA SEPEM project and the FP7 SEP Server projects but the creation of a physics based European operational model for SEP onset and evolution is lacking.

 

The model(s) will be integrated into the SWE Network via the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre.