To improve reliability-based estimates of satellites life projections, by developing improved degradation models at unit and system level

 

Reliability of End of Life operations is becoming a driver requirement for the design of future satellites, with an absolute value of reliability starting to be specified by international and national regulations and guidelines.

 

Currently the lifetime estimates for initiating the End-of-Life operations or to decide for mission extensions are mainly driven by consumables. There is an urgent need for more accurate quantitative reliability-based lifetime assessments. These estimations and must be validated by test and in-orbit experience data to prevent in-orbit satellite failures allowing at the same time to maximize return on investment. Furthermore, it will support other operations that have a growing market application such as constellation replenishment, launch date planning, etc.

 

The lifetime prediction model shall take into account wear out mechanisms impacted by environmental stresses (e.g. Radiation) or use conditions (e.g. Thermal and power cycles), limited resources (e.g. Propellant, power degradation over time), and the minimum configuration needed for disposal.

 

This activity encompasses the following tasks:

? Model unit degradation using test-based, model-based, stochastic and data trend analyses

? Validation through test at unit level and reference cases with in-orbit experience data

? Integration in system level proof-of-concept representative of different mission classes

? Derive guidelines for reliability driven design, health monitoring, operational approach, etc.